台灣科學園區發展趨勢動態模擬
劉仲戌、蕭志同、施杏姿
摘要
1970 年代以前，台灣產業結構以勞動密集工業為主，而後由於工資上漲與能源危機等問題，逐漸面臨發展瓶頸，為了讓經濟持續成長，改善產業結構，政府於 1980 年設立科學園區，將台灣製造業由勞力密集轉型為技術密集的結構。新竹科學園區成功的發展，確實為台灣帶來龐大的經濟效益與就業機會；然而科學園區的發展需要廣大的土地、充沛的勞動力、水電資源等投入，因此上述許多因素若遇到困境時，恐造成其成長的上限。本研究利用系統動態學，探討台灣科學園區發展的系統結構與發展趨勢；並且模擬人口出生率降低與人力外流，加上景氣變動、水電資源上限之影響效果。最後本研究進行相關因素的動態模擬與討論。
關鍵詞：人力資源、自然資源、科學園區、系統動態學
The Dynamic Simulation of the Development Trends for the Science Parks in Taiwan
Chung-Shu Liu, Chih-Tung Hsiao, Sing-Zih Shih
Abstract
Before the 1970s, labor-intensive industries were the key to the successful economic development in Taiwan. However, rising wages and oil crises had hindered the further development of Taiwan’s economy. In order to improve the industrial structure and pursue continual growth of the economy, the Taiwanese government decided to establish the science parks in 1980. The success of developing the Hsinchu Science Park did bring huge economic benefits and employment opportunities for Taiwan. Whereas, the development of science parks requires vast land, labors, water and electricity resources. When some of the factors above encounter the barrier of expansion, it can lead to the limits to the growth of science parks. This study uses system dynamics to explore the development trends of the science parks in Taiwan. In addition, effects about the decline of the birth rate, the outflow of skilled manpower coupled with economic fluctuations are simulated and discussed.
Keywords: Human Resources, Natural Resources, Science Park, System Dynamics
Received: 2018-08-01
Accepted: 2018-09-20