以混沌理論為基礎探討預測方法、資訊分享、需求模式、與產能緊度對動態供應鏈系統之影響
陳群樺、王維聰
摘要
文獻中顯示，混沌理論可應用性於探討現代供應鏈管理領域之議題。目前已有過往相關研究證明供應鏈系統存在混沌現象之事實，但對於供應鏈系統之動態性如何產生混沌行為卻缺乏著墨，此為研究上之缺口。近來許多研究指出，供應鏈相關因素(例如，需求模式、訂購政策、資訊分享、前置時間與供應鏈階層等等)或供應商與顧客之間複雜的互動過程對於供應鏈相關之決策流程會影響供應鏈如何產生系統之動態與混沌。基本上，上述的研究皆強調混沌行為對於有效管理供應鏈之負面影響，但就我們所知，在供應鏈管理領域，尚未找到有文獻探討預測方法之選擇、資訊分享、需求模式、與產能緊度對系統混沌狀態之影響與關係。 因此，在本研究中，試圖調查不同預測方法、需求模式、資訊分享與產能緊度水準所組成之情境下，動態供應鏈系統可能產生之複雜動態與混沌行為。本研究使用知名的啤酒配銷模型，觀察供應鏈動態與混沌如何受到上述各項因素之影響。研究結果將提供供應鏈管理人員在特定之需求模式下，應選擇何種預測方法與採取之資訊分享及產能緊度政策，降低動態供應鏈系統產生混沌行為之可能性，將可達到較佳之供應鏈績效表現。
關鍵詞：動態供應鏈系統、混沌理論、啤酒配銷模型、系統動力學、資訊分享
A Chaos-Theory Perspective to Investigating the Influences of Forecasting Methods, Information Sharing, Demand Pattern, and Capacity Tightness on the Dynamic Supply Chain Systems
Chiun-Hua Chen, Wei-Tsong Wang*
Abstract
Literature indicates that the adoption of the chaos theory is significant in terms of investigating issues related to modern supply chain management. Although there have been studies that investigate the existence of the chaotic phenomena in the supply chain systems, studies that explore how the dynamics of the supply chain systems can lead to the generation of chaotic phenomena are scarce. Some recent studies indicate that supply-chain-related factors, including demand patterns, ordering policies, information sharing, lead time, levels of supply chains, and the complex interaction processes between customers and suppliers can influence the decision making processes of the supply chains and, in turn, influences the dynamics and the chaotic phenomena occurred in the supply chains. In summary, prior studies on this issue investigate and emphasize the negative influences of the chaotic phenomena on the effectiveness of supply chain management. However, to the best of our knowledge, there have not been studies in supply chain management that specifically investigate how the selection of forecasting methods, information sharing, demand patterns, and capacity tightness may influence the occurrence of the chaotic phenomena in the supply chains. Consequently, this study aims to investigate how different forecasting methods, demand patterns, information sharing, and capacity tightness can affect the occurrence of the dynamic complexity and chaotic phenomena of dynamic supply chain systems. The well-known beer game model was adopted in this study to observe how the factors indicated above can affect the occurrence of the dynamic complexity and chaotic phenomena of dynamic supply chain systems. The research results have provided professionals of supply chain management with guidelines of the combination of forecasting methods, information sharing, and capacity tightness for a particular demand pattern in order to reduce the probability of the occurrence of chaotic phenomena and to achieve better performance in supply chain management.
Keywords: Dynamic Supply Chain Systems, Chaos Theory, Beer Game, System Dynamics, Information Sharing
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Accepted: