以系統動態學分析高雄港市的選舉地理
林廖嘉宏
摘要
就政治學者的觀點，影響選民投票的行為包括候選人形象、競選策略、競選行為、選民內在感受的態度、政黨政治環境、政治生態等因素；惟施政建設對於連任者選票的影響性，一直未被深入討論，甚至會被認為理所當然會增加選票。本研究嘗試從系統動態學分析的觀點，整合高雄港周邊人口、土地、住宅、運輸、港口建設等性質較為相近的鹽埕等5個行政區量化資料，於2013年模擬其在2014年高雄市長選舉的可能結果，藉此分析高雄建設與選舉地理的關聯性；經分析，本研究與選舉結果公告誤差僅2%。 本研究內容主要分成四部分。首先，本研究會說明系統動態學的研究理念及應用。其次，評析有關港市發展歷程與相關文獻。第三，說明系統動態學分析方式、變數設定的意義及模型建構過程。最後，從模擬結果探討政黨輪替後高雄市的改變，以及在不同情境下，對於鹽埕等5個行政區於2014年市長選舉選票可能產生的影響，以提供學術界選舉研究之方法運用，及政府部門決策相關策略參考。
關鍵詞：港口發展、系統動態學分析、選舉地理
System Dynamics (SD) Analysis of Electoral Geography in the Port City of Kaohsiung
Chia-hong LIN-LIAO
Abstract
The behaviors, in the eyes of political scientists, that have influences on voting include the image of candidates, campaign strategy, campaign behavior, the attitude voters perceive, party politics environment and political ecology. However, rarely studied is the influence of infrastructure development on the chance to win the second term. Some even believe it is naturally a vote winner. This study was intended to put together the quantitative data of Yencheng and 4 other districts, which are districts of Kaohsiung similar in population, land, housing, transportation and port development, from the perspective of system dynamics. The possible result of the 2014 Kaohsiung mayor election was simulated in order to identify the correlation between the infrastructure development and electoral geography in Kaohsiung. First the study background and application of system dynamics were introduced, followed by the review on literatures regarding development history of this port city. Then, the methodology of system dynamics analysis, definition of variables and model development were elaborated. Finally, the changes of Kaohsiung City after party alternation was evaluated based on simulation results and the possible influences generated from the votes of the 2014 Kaohsiung mayor election at Yencheng and 4 other districts under various scenarios were proposed as the basis for the applications in academic research of election and the decision making process of governments.
Keywords: Port Development, System Dynamics Analysis, Electoral Geography
Received:
Accepted: